Market Pulse: State by State Shopper Demand for Q3 Planning

Chris Martin, Senior Vice President of Customer Development

Market Pulse: State by State Shopper Demand for Q3 Planning

Chris Martin, Senior Vice President of Customer Development

Market Pulse: State by State Shopper Demand for Q3 Planning

Chris Martin, Senior Vice President of Customer Development

The first half of 2020 gives new meaning to the popular phrase, “hindsight is 20/20.” Dealers across the country are looking to the second half with more questions than answers. What is known, is that 1) far fewer cars will be sold this year than believed even as recently as February; and 2) seasonality, historical trends and data modeling have been rendered obsolete, at least until we welcome a new year. What that means for dealers is an increased pressure to stay focused, remain adaptable and efficiently leverage their marketing investment to influence and shape the buying journey of in-market shoppers.

Dealers preparing for the remainder of 2020 must start with analyzing today’s online shopping behavior. With a lens into online shopping activity across the entire internet, Client Command’s Active Shopper Network® is uniquely positioned to deliver real-time insights into who has started shopping, stopped shopping or continued shopping in the past 24 hours. Success requires knowing how many shoppers are in their market on a daily basis, what those shoppers are looking for and investing their dollars with precision to maximize as many opportunities as possible.

It is unrealistic to expect dealers can make up for the losses they individually experienced from the Covid-19 crisis. However, there is opportunity ready to be seized as we start the second half of the year.

160% Growth in New Shoppers Entering the Market; Leading Indicator for Q3 Sales

Dealers should be watching the number of shoppers in the market like a hawk. Why? The number of car sales a dealer can expect is predicated on the number of retail shoppers in market. The good news for dealers is that retail shopping trend lines are moving up and to the right.

Year-Over-Year – Active Shopper Network® – Daily Shopping Trends (National)

ALL Daily Active Shoppers

ALL SHOPPERS – TRENDS: The recovery is gaining momentum. A surge of shopper activity in June is creating a steady upward trend eating in to the year over year lag. Shopping activity has lagged 2019 by double digits since April. Heading in to Q3, that margin has been cut in half, hovering at 7% as we approach the end of the month.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily Shopping Trends (National)

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

NEW DAILY ENTRANTS TRENDS: The number of new entrants has rebounded to levels unseen since the Covid-19 reality set in. Having spent more than eight weeks bottoming out from mid-March through mid-May, the number of new entrants grew 160% over the next six weeks. Unlike the gradual U-shaped curve of Q2, we are heading into Q3 with a trend line leaning towards the preferred V-shape in new shoppers entering the market.

What does this mean? The timing is critical as many factories expect to be back to full capacity in early July. The steady growth in the number of new daily entrants mirrors what we saw in early March. March demand resulted in healthier than anticipated May sales and June sales. With new daily entrants serving as a leading indicator for sales in the next 4-6 weeks, and overall shopping reaching pre-Covid levels, dealers are positioned for a potentially more favorable Q3 than projected even six weeks ago.

The State of the State: What to Expect in Q3 Based on Daily New Entrant Data

State by state, region by region, automotive is accelerating into recovery mode. Depending on the pre-crisis state of your business, your brand and the state your dealership operates, your perspective varies on how far (and if) you see the crisis in the rearview mirror.

As we press forward, a closer look at the state-level New Daily Entrants data offers insights into shopper demand that is key in understanding where states are positioned on the recovery curve heading in to Q3.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily New Entrants Variance by State

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

To start, let’s show the full picture of how daily new entrants has fluctuated in 2020. The graph below shows the variance of daily new entrants for all 50 states. From it we can see the spikes, dips and trends of shopper demand at the state level.

The 1.0 axis marks the when a state’s Daily New Entrants align with the expected percentage of the national total daily new entrants. A variance above 1.0 indicates where a state is outpacing the expected number of daily new entrants. A variance below 1.0 indicates where the number of new entrants is lagging the expected number.

2020 DAILY NEW ENTRANTS – TRENDS: The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis was a two-week trough that was felt equally across every state. Since the end of March, shopper activity has varied greatly state by state based on the spread of the virus in a state and the responses led by state and local governments.

New Daily Entrants is a leading indicator of future sales (four to six weeks), begging the question, how are the trends of late May and June positioning states for Q3.

California & Texas

In typical conditions, these two states command the highest percentages of national totals of new daily entrants. Meanwhile, the differences between their Covid-19 responses and the impact on Q2 car sales has been well documented with Texas experiencing much less disruption from the crisis.

Compared to other states, shopper demand has remained steady for Texas throughout the recovery, trending at or above the expected variance. California’s shopper demand has experienced more fluctuation, and spent more days lagging their expected contribution.

Key Insight: The weeks immediately following Memorial Day offer the greatest disparity. California lost momentum, while Texas experienced a surge of New Daily Entrants in late May and early June that puts Texas dealers in a position for a strong start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

New York & Florida

Both New York and Florida are among the top tier of states who make the largest contributions to Daily New Entrants. Despite vastly different approaches to the Covid-19 crisis, shopper demand remained steady across both states through mid-May.

Key Insight: The Memorial Day holiday was a momentum driver for dealers in most states, with a more significant surge of shoppers entering the market in Florida, strengthening the position of both states for late summer.

Midwest Region

Governors of seven states in the Midwest — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin — formed a coalition to coordinate their responses the Covid-19 crisis. The economic re-opening approach, appears to impact consumer mindset for car shopping as well – with similar patterns emerging in each state for new shoppers entering the market through mid-May.

Key Insight: The turning point for these states was the week leading up to the Memorial Day weekend. Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana remained even, with some erratic fluctuations among Wisconsin shoppers. However, Illinois and Minnesota saw surges of new shoppers that put these states in a better position for a quick start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

Maximizing Recovery in Q3 Relies on Understanding Shopper Demand in Your Area.

It is critical for you to know exactly what’s happening in your market right now. The Active Shopper Network® and its corresponding dashboards can give dealers daily, weekly, and monthly Active Shopper® trends at the zip code level. The surges in new entrants today can be your sales in late July and August. Client Command is leveraging our industry-leading tech to partner with dealers to offer visibility into today’s shopper demand, to anticipate trends based on what’s happening right now and to take action through precision targeting and advertising when the time is right for their dealership.

Give us a call to demo to the Active Shopper Network®.  Your business requires that you have the freshest information and market insights available to maximize the opportunities available in Q3 and beyond.

The first half of 2020 gives new meaning to the popular phrase, “hindsight is 20/20.” Dealers across the country are looking to the second half with more questions than answers. What is known, is that 1) far fewer cars will be sold this year than believed even as recently as February; and 2) seasonality, historical trends and data modeling have been rendered obsolete, at least until we welcome a new year. What that means for dealers is an increased pressure to stay focused, remain adaptable and efficiently leverage their marketing investment to influence and shape the buying journey of in-market shoppers.

Dealers preparing for the remainder of 2020 must start with analyzing today’s online shopping behavior. With a lens into online shopping activity across the entire internet, Client Command’s Active Shopper Network® is uniquely positioned to deliver real-time insights into who has started shopping, stopped shopping or continued shopping in the past 24 hours. Success requires knowing how many shoppers are in their market on a daily basis, what those shoppers are looking for and investing their dollars with precision to maximize as many opportunities as possible.

It is unrealistic to expect dealers can make up for the losses they individually experienced from the Covid-19 crisis. However, there is opportunity ready to be seized as we start the second half of the year.

160% Growth in New Shoppers Entering the Market; Leading Indicator for Q3 Sales

Dealers should be watching the number of shoppers in the market like a hawk. Why? The number of car sales a dealer can expect is predicated on the number of retail shoppers in market. The good news for dealers is that retail shopping trend lines are moving up and to the right.

Year-Over-Year – Active Shopper Network® – Daily Shopping Trends (National)

ALL Daily Active Shoppers

ALL SHOPPERS – TRENDS: The recovery is gaining momentum. A surge of shopper activity in June is creating a steady upward trend eating in to the year over year lag. Shopping activity has lagged 2019 by double digits since April. Heading in to Q3, that margin has been cut in half, hovering at 7% as we approach the end of the month.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily Shopping Trends (National)

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

NEW DAILY ENTRANTS TRENDS: The number of new entrants has rebounded to levels unseen since the Covid-19 reality set in. Having spent more than eight weeks bottoming out from mid-March through mid-May, the number of new entrants grew 160% over the next six weeks. Unlike the gradual U-shaped curve of Q2, we are heading into Q3 with a trend line leaning towards the preferred V-shape in new shoppers entering the market.

What does this mean? The timing is critical as many factories expect to be back to full capacity in early July. The steady growth in the number of new daily entrants mirrors what we saw in early March. March demand resulted in healthier than anticipated May sales and June sales. With new daily entrants serving as a leading indicator for sales in the next 4-6 weeks, and overall shopping reaching pre-Covid levels, dealers are positioned for a potentially more favorable Q3 than projected even six weeks ago.

The State of the State: What to Expect in Q3 Based on Daily New Entrant Data

State by state, region by region, automotive is accelerating into recovery mode. Depending on the pre-crisis state of your business, your brand and the state your dealership operates, your perspective varies on how far (and if) you see the crisis in the rearview mirror.

As we press forward, a closer look at the state-level New Daily Entrants data offers insights into shopper demand that is key in understanding where states are positioned on the recovery curve heading in to Q3.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily New Entrants Variance by State

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

To start, let’s show the full picture of how daily new entrants has fluctuated in 2020. The graph below shows the variance of daily new entrants for all 50 states. From it we can see the spikes, dips and trends of shopper demand at the state level.

The 1.0 axis marks the when a state’s Daily New Entrants align with the expected percentage of the national total daily new entrants. A variance above 1.0 indicates where a state is outpacing the expected number of daily new entrants. A variance below 1.0 indicates where the number of new entrants is lagging the expected number.

2020 DAILY NEW ENTRANTS – TRENDS: The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis was a two-week trough that was felt equally across every state. Since the end of March, shopper activity has varied greatly state by state based on the spread of the virus in a state and the responses led by state and local governments.

New Daily Entrants is a leading indicator of future sales (four to six weeks), begging the question, how are the trends of late May and June positioning states for Q3.

California & Texas

In typical conditions, these two states command the highest percentages of national totals of new daily entrants. Meanwhile, the differences between their Covid-19 responses and the impact on Q2 car sales has been well documented with Texas experiencing much less disruption from the crisis.

Compared to other states, shopper demand has remained steady for Texas throughout the recovery, trending at or above the expected variance. California’s shopper demand has experienced more fluctuation, and spent more days lagging their expected contribution.

Key Insight: The weeks immediately following Memorial Day offer the greatest disparity. California lost momentum, while Texas experienced a surge of New Daily Entrants in late May and early June that puts Texas dealers in a position for a strong start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

New York & Florida

Both New York and Florida are among the top tier of states who make the largest contributions to Daily New Entrants. Despite vastly different approaches to the Covid-19 crisis, shopper demand remained steady across both states through mid-May.

Key Insight: The Memorial Day holiday was a momentum driver for dealers in most states, with a more significant surge of shoppers entering the market in Florida, strengthening the position of both states for late summer.

Midwest Region

Governors of seven states in the Midwest — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin — formed a coalition to coordinate their responses the Covid-19 crisis. The economic re-opening approach, appears to impact consumer mindset for car shopping as well – with similar patterns emerging in each state for new shoppers entering the market through mid-May.

Key Insight: The turning point for these states was the week leading up to the Memorial Day weekend. Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana remained even, with some erratic fluctuations among Wisconsin shoppers. However, Illinois and Minnesota saw surges of new shoppers that put these states in a better position for a quick start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

Maximizing Recovery in Q3 Relies on Understanding Shopper Demand in Your Area.

It is critical for you to know exactly what’s happening in your market right now. The Active Shopper Network® and its corresponding dashboards can give dealers daily, weekly, and monthly Active Shopper® trends at the zip code level. The surges in new entrants today can be your sales in late July and August. Client Command is leveraging our industry-leading tech to partner with dealers to offer visibility into today’s shopper demand, to anticipate trends based on what’s happening right now and to take action through precision targeting and advertising when the time is right for their dealership.

Give us a call to demo to the Active Shopper Network®.  Your business requires that you have the freshest information and market insights available to maximize the opportunities available in Q3 and beyond.

The first half of 2020 gives new meaning to the popular phrase, “hindsight is 20/20.” Dealers across the country are looking to the second half with more questions than answers. What is known, is that 1) far fewer cars will be sold this year than believed even as recently as February; and 2) seasonality, historical trends and data modeling have been rendered obsolete, at least until we welcome a new year. What that means for dealers is an increased pressure to stay focused, remain adaptable and efficiently leverage their marketing investment to influence and shape the buying journey of in-market shoppers.

Dealers preparing for the remainder of 2020 must start with analyzing today’s online shopping behavior. With a lens into online shopping activity across the entire internet, Client Command’s Active Shopper Network® is uniquely positioned to deliver real-time insights into who has started shopping, stopped shopping or continued shopping in the past 24 hours. Success requires knowing how many shoppers are in their market on a daily basis, what those shoppers are looking for and investing their dollars with precision to maximize as many opportunities as possible.

It is unrealistic to expect dealers can make up for the losses they individually experienced from the Covid-19 crisis. However, there is opportunity ready to be seized as we start the second half of the year.

160% Growth in New Shoppers Entering the Market; Leading Indicator for Q3 Sales

Dealers should be watching the number of shoppers in the market like a hawk. Why? The number of car sales a dealer can expect is predicated on the number of retail shoppers in market. The good news for dealers is that retail shopping trend lines are moving up and to the right.

Year-Over-Year – Active Shopper Network® – Daily Shopping Trends (National)

ALL Daily Active Shoppers

ALL SHOPPERS – TRENDS: The recovery is gaining momentum. A surge of shopper activity in June is creating a steady upward trend eating in to the year over year lag. Shopping activity has lagged 2019 by double digits since April. Heading in to Q3, that margin has been cut in half, hovering at 7% as we approach the end of the month.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily Shopping Trends (National)

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

NEW DAILY ENTRANTS TRENDS: The number of new entrants has rebounded to levels unseen since the Covid-19 reality set in. Having spent more than eight weeks bottoming out from mid-March through mid-May, the number of new entrants grew 160% over the next six weeks. Unlike the gradual U-shaped curve of Q2, we are heading into Q3 with a trend line leaning towards the preferred V-shape in new shoppers entering the market.

What does this mean? The timing is critical as many factories expect to be back to full capacity in early July. The steady growth in the number of new daily entrants mirrors what we saw in early March. March demand resulted in healthier than anticipated May sales and June sales. With new daily entrants serving as a leading indicator for sales in the next 4-6 weeks, and overall shopping reaching pre-Covid levels, dealers are positioned for a potentially more favorable Q3 than projected even six weeks ago.

The State of the State: What to Expect in Q3 Based on Daily New Entrant Data

State by state, region by region, automotive is accelerating into recovery mode. Depending on the pre-crisis state of your business, your brand and the state your dealership operates, your perspective varies on how far (and if) you see the crisis in the rearview mirror.

As we press forward, a closer look at the state-level New Daily Entrants data offers insights into shopper demand that is key in understanding where states are positioned on the recovery curve heading in to Q3.

Active Shopper Network® – 2020 Daily New Entrants Variance by State

NEW Daily Active Shoppers (started shopping that day)

To start, let’s show the full picture of how daily new entrants has fluctuated in 2020. The graph below shows the variance of daily new entrants for all 50 states. From it we can see the spikes, dips and trends of shopper demand at the state level.

The 1.0 axis marks the when a state’s Daily New Entrants align with the expected percentage of the national total daily new entrants. A variance above 1.0 indicates where a state is outpacing the expected number of daily new entrants. A variance below 1.0 indicates where the number of new entrants is lagging the expected number.

2020 DAILY NEW ENTRANTS – TRENDS: The immediate impact of the Covid-19 crisis was a two-week trough that was felt equally across every state. Since the end of March, shopper activity has varied greatly state by state based on the spread of the virus in a state and the responses led by state and local governments.

New Daily Entrants is a leading indicator of future sales (four to six weeks), begging the question, how are the trends of late May and June positioning states for Q3.

California & Texas

In typical conditions, these two states command the highest percentages of national totals of new daily entrants. Meanwhile, the differences between their Covid-19 responses and the impact on Q2 car sales has been well documented with Texas experiencing much less disruption from the crisis.

Compared to other states, shopper demand has remained steady for Texas throughout the recovery, trending at or above the expected variance. California’s shopper demand has experienced more fluctuation, and spent more days lagging their expected contribution.

Key Insight: The weeks immediately following Memorial Day offer the greatest disparity. California lost momentum, while Texas experienced a surge of New Daily Entrants in late May and early June that puts Texas dealers in a position for a strong start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

New York & Florida

Both New York and Florida are among the top tier of states who make the largest contributions to Daily New Entrants. Despite vastly different approaches to the Covid-19 crisis, shopper demand remained steady across both states through mid-May.

Key Insight: The Memorial Day holiday was a momentum driver for dealers in most states, with a more significant surge of shoppers entering the market in Florida, strengthening the position of both states for late summer.

Midwest Region

Governors of seven states in the Midwest — Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin — formed a coalition to coordinate their responses the Covid-19 crisis. The economic re-opening approach, appears to impact consumer mindset for car shopping as well – with similar patterns emerging in each state for new shoppers entering the market through mid-May.

Key Insight: The turning point for these states was the week leading up to the Memorial Day weekend. Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Indiana remained even, with some erratic fluctuations among Wisconsin shoppers. However, Illinois and Minnesota saw surges of new shoppers that put these states in a better position for a quick start to Q3, depending on inventory levels.

Maximizing Recovery in Q3 Relies on Understanding Shopper Demand in Your Area.

It is critical for you to know exactly what’s happening in your market right now. The Active Shopper Network® and its corresponding dashboards can give dealers daily, weekly, and monthly Active Shopper® trends at the zip code level. The surges in new entrants today can be your sales in late July and August. Client Command is leveraging our industry-leading tech to partner with dealers to offer visibility into today’s shopper demand, to anticipate trends based on what’s happening right now and to take action through precision targeting and advertising when the time is right for their dealership.

Give us a call to demo to the Active Shopper Network®.  Your business requires that you have the freshest information and market insights available to maximize the opportunities available in Q3 and beyond.